THIS is why *I* fear inflation is coming.
*I am not a fortune teller (aka an economist or financial consultant.)
See related story, “If Cash is King then Gold is — forgive me — G*d”
In 2000, Bob Prechter published a book called “Conquering the Crash” in which he accurately predicted the current financial markets meltdown right down to the bank failures and futile “bailout” actions on the part of the Fed.
This past October, Prechter was asked if we could expect to see a “bottom” any time soon. In other words, the end of the declines and the beginning of the rebuilding of share values.
He quite confidently said the equivalent of “no way!”
That was over four months ago and so far he’s right on the money.
Prechter is a highly respected analyst on Wall Street as demonstrated by his frequent appearances on Bloomberg TV.
Unfortunately, his message is not getting to the “average” investor who is being told to “hold steady.”
Holding steady is a period of dramatic deflation is a great formula for going broke.
The period between the end of the Bush disaster and the beginning of the Obama ascendancy is a quiet time and a moment for reflection before we cheer more for the passing of the last year than the coming of the next. A Zogby Poll found, “Americans are overwhelmingly glad to say goodbye to 2008 but are somewhat unsure of the future. Americans are guardedly optimistic about 2009, but many feel that the coming year will be worse or the same as 2008.”
Many of us are looking for guidance from the past, perhaps even from the period when Herbert Hoover bid adieu and FDR waited for his turn at bat. The year was 1932: It was a year of famine in Russia, hunger marches in Britain, Nazis emerging in Germany, Gandhi striking for India’s independence, and 13 million Americans were out of work. A temporary halt to foreclosures had been ordered while working hours and wages were cut.
The worst was still to come.